Gameweek 9 · updated
Who starts this weekend?
Start probability, expected minutes and rotation risk for every Premier League player, updated after every press conference. Every change is logged with its source and time, and we publish how accurate we were.
9.3/11Avg. starters correct, GW8
85%Predicted starters who started
0.093Brier score (lower is better; naive 0.246)
0Logged changes this gameweek
Accuracy figures come from our weekly evaluation against the actual lineups. See the full track record.
Gameweek 9 fixtures
- Chelsea v Man UtdEarly forecast
- Bournemouth v LeedsEarly forecast
- Brentford v Nott'm ForestEarly forecast
- Coventry v SunderlandEarly forecast
- Hull City v IpswichEarly forecast
- Man City v BrightonEarly forecast
- Spurs v PalaceEarly forecast
- Aston Villa v FulhamEarly forecast
- Liverpool v ArsenalEarly forecast
- Newcastle v EvertonEarly forecast
Latest changes
- No changes logged yet.
What makes LikelyXI different
Probabilities, not guesses
Each player gets a start probability and expected minutes rather than a single "predicted XI".
Every change has a source
Press conference, club channel, journalist or model update — linked and time-stamped in UK time.
Published accuracy
Weekly hit-rate, calibration and Brier score against the actual starting lineups.